Source: www.persecution.org
Date: February 27, 2024
Myanmar (International Christian Concern) – Occupying the smallest state in Myanmar, ethnic armed militias in Kayeh are waging an effective if fiercely contested battle against the military dictatorship that holds the country’s capital, Naypyidaw. Part of the world’s longest civil war—ongoing since 1948 and nearing its 76th anniversary—the amalgamation of armed groups fighting in Kayeh is emblematic of the troubles facing the Tatmadaw, or official Burmese military since it seized the country in February 2021 in what became a bloody coup.
Kayeh is strategically located not only on the border with Thailand but relatively close to Naypyidaw, where the military is based. As a result, the military has poured significant firepower into the region, hoping to effectively subjugate it and its long history of resistance.
Despite its dedication of resources to the state, though, the military has seen few victories in recent months and, to the contrary, has suffered a series of battlefield losses that make analysts believe the tide is turning against it.
In Kayeh, militia advances against the Tatmadaw have even come to include some urban areas, notably Mese and Demoso townships. In November of 2023, the militias launched an offensive against Tatmadaw-controlled Loikaw. In December, Radio Free Asia reported that they had been successful in taking control of at least 80% of Loikaw, though that number is constantly subject to change given fluctuating battlefield dynamics.
On February 8, in Burma’s western Rakhine state, the ethnic Arakan Army seized Mrauk-U, the former capital of the Arakan kingdom, along with the towns of Minbya and Kyauktaw, according to The Diplomat. The Arakan Army has seen several high-profile victories since fighting resumed in 2023, including the downing of a helicopter and numerous navy vessels.
Later in February, the junta sentenced three brigadier generals to death for surrendering Laukkai, a strategic town on Burma’s eastern border with China that has seen intense fighting in recent months. The surrender has been hailed as a significant victory for the country’s ethnic militia alliances and the junta’s largest military defeat in decades.
Experts believe that the Tatmadaw is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000-400,000 and calls into question the junta’s continued ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign.
Burma’s military government announced last week that it would begin national conscription. According to an official announcement, the draft applies to all men aged 18-35 and all women aged 18-27 and can extend for up to five years.
Thousands of young people attempted to flee the country after the announcement, gathering by the thousands in front of the Thai embassy in Yangon. Two members of the crowd died in the crush to escape mandatory service.
Earlier reports from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar suggest that anti-junta militias gains have reduced the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%.
Though Myanmar’s population is about 87% Buddhist, pockets of minority religious communities exist throughout the country, including in Kayeh State, where nearly 46% of the population identifies as Christian. Kayeh is located on Myanmar’s eastern border with Thailand. On its western border with India, Chin State is about 85% Christian, while Rakhine State is home to a significant population of Rohingya people, most of whom are Muslim.
Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Tatmadaw has long persecuted these ethnic and religious minorities with severe campaigns of violence and intimidation.
HOW TO PRAY: Pray for a quick and peaceful end to this conflict. Pray for protection for those who are caught in the crossfire. Pray for believers to shine the light of Christ in this region.